Patriots vs. Bears odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, prediction by NFL model on 146-107 roll

Patriots vs. Bears odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, prediction by NFL model on 146-107 roll

Updated: 1 month, 3 days, 19 hours, 14 minutes, 58 seconds ago

The New England Patriots will try to add to the misery of the Chicago Bears when they host Chicago on Monday Night Football to conclude the Week 7 NFL schedule. The Patriots (3-3) have won two in a row, while the Bears (2-4) have lost three straight. New England has uncertainty at quarterback, with Bailey Zappe having a huge day last week but Mac Jones expected to be ready to return after missing three weeks with an ankle injury. The Bears selected quarterback Justin Fields with the 11th overall pick in last year's draft but have been relying on the running game all season. The teams have not met since 2018, a 38-31 Patriots victory in Chicago. Patriots coach Bill Belichick can break a tie with George Halas for the second-most victories by a head coach in NFL history, including playoffs, if he gets his 325th on Monday. Don Shula holds the record with 347.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Caesars Sportsbook lists New England as a 7.5-point favorite in its latest Patriots vs. Bears odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 40. Before locking in any Bears vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 146-107 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. Bears and just locked in its picks and MNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Bears vs. Patriots:

Patriots vs. Bears spread: New England -7.5Patriots vs. Bears over/under: 40 pointsPatriots vs. Bears money line: Chicago +300, New England -385Bears: Bears are 5-7-1 ATS after a loss since the start of last seasonPatriots: Patriots are 3-1 ATS in their last four with a rest disadvantagePatriots vs. Bears picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Patriots can cover

The favorite is 4-0 against the spread in the past four meetings and the Patriots have dominated as big home favorites. They have been favored by seven points or more six times since quarterback Tom Brady left and are 5-1 ATS, winning by an average of 26 points. The Bears have won three road games since the start of last season and are 4-8 ATS in that span. The New England defense might be the best one Chicago has faced, and the Bears are averaging 15.5 points per game (31st in NFL). New England is allowing less than 19 (seventh).

The Patriots will be able to focus on the running game and make Fields beat them, as Chicago runs the ball almost 59% of the time, most in the NFL. Fields can make plays with his legs, but he is completing just 54% of his passes. He has ben intercepted five times, compared to four touchdown passes, and has been sacked 23 times. The Patriots should be able to do plenty of damage of their own on the ground Monday Night Football. They rank 10th in the league in rushing, averaging 131 yards per game, while the Bears give up 163 yards per contest (29th). See which team to pick here.

Why the Bears can cover 

Chicago has an effective ground game and a defense that can make big plays. The Bears average almost 171 rushing yards per game, second in the league, and average 5.2 yards per carry (sixth). Khalil Herbert (402 yards, 6.4 per carry), David Montgomery (246 yards) and Fields (282) could find holes against New England's 17th-ranked run defense. The Patriots allow 119 rushing yards per game (19th in NFL) and 4.7 per carry (22nd). The Bears also should be able to bear down against the run, as the Patriots average 223 passing yards per game (18th).

Chicago's defense ranks third in the NFL against the pass (179 yards per game) and has eight takeaways. Safety Eddie Jackson has three interceptions and has forced two fumbles and could find opportunities Monday. The Patriots have turned the ball over 11 times, tied for third-most in the league. The Bears also have some big-play threats on offense if Fields has time to find them. Receiver Dante Pettis averages 24 yards and has scored twice on just five receptions, and Darnell Mooney has four catches of 20 or more yards, including a 56-yarder. See which team to pick here.

How to make Patriots vs. Bears picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total. In fact, it's calling for 46 combined points. It also says one of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the model's MNF picks at SportsLine. 

So who wins Bears vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bears vs. Patriots spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $7,000 on its NFL picks, and find out.